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4 Sep 2014
Australian GDP shows resilience - Nomura
FXStreet (Bali) - Charles St-Arnaud, Economist at Nomura, reviews yesterday's Australian GDP data, noting that strong inventory accumulation, household spending and construction managed to offset export drag.
Key Quotes
"Overall, the report shows that growth was slightly below trend in Q2. The strength in the non-mining construction sector was likely a result of the low interest rate environment. Moreover, continued robust household spending and strong household disposable income suggest that the household sector should remain resilient despite the softening of the labour market."
"The decline in exports over the quarter could be a source of concern, but we believe it is a correction following a very strong increase in Q1. Moreover, port information received in recent months suggest that export growth will resume in Q3."
"The sharp increase in inventories in Q2 is likely to be partly reversed next quarter, reducing growth, in our view. Today's GDP report is roughly in line with the Reserve Bank of Australia's view in its August Statement on Monetary Policy and in our opinion is unlikely to affect its economic outlook."
Key Quotes
"Overall, the report shows that growth was slightly below trend in Q2. The strength in the non-mining construction sector was likely a result of the low interest rate environment. Moreover, continued robust household spending and strong household disposable income suggest that the household sector should remain resilient despite the softening of the labour market."
"The decline in exports over the quarter could be a source of concern, but we believe it is a correction following a very strong increase in Q1. Moreover, port information received in recent months suggest that export growth will resume in Q3."
"The sharp increase in inventories in Q2 is likely to be partly reversed next quarter, reducing growth, in our view. Today's GDP report is roughly in line with the Reserve Bank of Australia's view in its August Statement on Monetary Policy and in our opinion is unlikely to affect its economic outlook."