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11 Oct 2024
EUR/USD: Dovish ECB pivot is priced in – Scotiabank
The Euro (EUR) is a little firmer on the session but effectively holding within yesterday’s spot range in quiet trade, Scotiabank’s FX Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.
EUR steadies in low 1.09s
“There are few inputs for markets to respond to so far today. Markets are all but fully priced for a dovish pivot from the ECB to unfold— 25bps cuts at each of the next two policy decisions—and the widening in EZ/US spreads has stabilized as a result. Note estimated FV for EUR/USD has steadied in the low 1.09s.”
“From here, spot movement will be driven by either, or both, evolving Fed policy expectations into year end and positioning into and around the US presidential election.”
“Spot losses have steadied over the past two sessions, with intraday chart patterns showing a bullish ‘hammer’ signal developing on the intraday candle chart around yesterday’s test of 1.09. Trends remain negative though and minor EUR gains to the mid/upper 1.09s are meeting resistance. Broader technical patterns still suggest downside risk to the 1.08 area in the coming weeks.”