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AUD/USD may still move to 0.6645 – UOB Group

Australian Dollar (AUD) is likely to consolidate in a range of 0.6555/0.6595 against US Dollar (USD). In the longer run, short-term momentum has eased slightly; AUD may still move to 0.6645, but the odds are not high, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

Short-term momentum has eased slightly

24-HOUR VIEW: "We noted last Friday that 'the current price movements are likely part of a consolidation phase between 0.6570/0.6615.' The subsequent price movements did not turn out as expected. AUD dropped to a low of 0.6552 and closed at 0.6565 (-0.39%). The price movements still appear to be part of a consolidation phase, probably in a range of 0.6555/0.6595."

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "We adopted a positive AUD stance in the middle of last week. After AUD reached our prior technical objective at 0.6625 and pulled back, we pointed out Friday (25 Jul, spot at 0.6590) that 'while short-term momentum has eased slightly, AUD may still move to 0.6645, but the odds are not high.' We added, 'a break of 0.6545 (‘strong support’ level) would mean that 0.6645 is out of reach.' We continue to hold the same view."

RUB: 200bp cut delivered, more coming – Commerzbank

The Russian central bank (CBR) cut its policy rate by 200bp to 18.0% last Friday, matching market expectations. This move followed recent disinflationary developments where the seasonally-adjusted annualised inflation rate already reached CBR’s 4% target.
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The PBoC continues to prefer a weaker CNY – Commerzbank

The USD/CNY exchange rate has not moved much in recent weeks. Since the US and China agreed to a truce in the trade war on 11 June, the exchange rate has moved within a range of just 7.155 to 7.188, which is not even 0.5%.
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