EUR: Ukraine truce hopes helping euro – ING

Trump’s optimism on a Ukraine-Russia truce is likely feeding into euro strength, which stands in complete opposition to the dollar on the matter. Should a truce become a more tangible prospect, EUR/USD and EUR/CHF are expected to serve as the primary channels for euro appreciation, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.

Balance of risks remains tilted beyond 1.170

"The franc continues to suffer from deteriorating US-Switzerland trade relations. The Swiss President returned from a Washington visit yesterday without securing improved trade terms, reducing the likelihood of an imminent deal."

"Nevertheless, Swiss National Bank pricing remains anchored, with less than a 50% implied probability of an additional rate cut following the unexpected tariff-driven rebound in July. The trigger for a dovish rethink – and another CHF selloff – might be the additional burden of larger-than-expected US pharma tariffs, which are currently excluded from the 39% rate applied to Switzerland but expected to be announced next week."

"On EUR/USD, our call for today is neutral, but the balance of risks remains tilted to the upside, even beyond 1.170."