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2 Nov 2014
Another game changer for the Yen - JPM
FXStreet (Bali) - According to Nial O'Connor, FX Strategist at JP Morgan, the late-week extension for JPY represents another bearish shift and increased risk of additional underperformance in the coming weeks/months.
Key Quotes
"The late-week underperformance for JPY represents an important bearish shift and increased risk of additional weakness in the coming weeks and months. As the price action develops with a trending bias, corrective retracements are viewed as selling opportunities against the USD and crosses."
"For USD/JPY, the extension above the 110.09/110.67 zone (October and 2008 highs) turns the focus to the next line of important resistance at 112.69, the 76.4% retracement of the decline from the 2007 high. While some short term pause can develop against here, the 110 area should now act as a short term floor. Through this retracement level would affirm a more significant shift is underway while calling for a test of the 115/118 zone (late- 2007 highs)."
"The action on the crosses also suggests a potential medium term shift and increased risk for a continuation of the rallies from the October lows. To that point, the close of October should confirm a number of bullish reversal months including EUR, GBP, CHF, AUD, NZD and CAD against JPY suggesting upside follow-through in November. Still, we note the rallies have quickly extended into the next line of key resistance levels implying some initial pause."
"In this regard, EUR/JPY faces a critical test at the 140.55/141.25 zone which includes the downtrendline from the Dec ’13 high and the September peak. Importantly, upside breaks would imply an increased risk that the medium term corrective phase is now complete. Similarly, AUD/JPY faces a key test at the 98.67 September high which should define a closer test, if not break of the 100.78/101 zone (76.4% retracement), while NZD/JPY sees critical resistance at the 89/90 zone which represents this year's range highs. Also, the rally for CAD/JPY has extended into the critical 100/101 zone which includes the highs going back to early-2013. Given the increased potential for additional JPY underperformance, corrective retracements are viewed as buying opportunities for the crosses, as well as for USD/JPY."
Key Quotes
"The late-week underperformance for JPY represents an important bearish shift and increased risk of additional weakness in the coming weeks and months. As the price action develops with a trending bias, corrective retracements are viewed as selling opportunities against the USD and crosses."
"For USD/JPY, the extension above the 110.09/110.67 zone (October and 2008 highs) turns the focus to the next line of important resistance at 112.69, the 76.4% retracement of the decline from the 2007 high. While some short term pause can develop against here, the 110 area should now act as a short term floor. Through this retracement level would affirm a more significant shift is underway while calling for a test of the 115/118 zone (late- 2007 highs)."
"The action on the crosses also suggests a potential medium term shift and increased risk for a continuation of the rallies from the October lows. To that point, the close of October should confirm a number of bullish reversal months including EUR, GBP, CHF, AUD, NZD and CAD against JPY suggesting upside follow-through in November. Still, we note the rallies have quickly extended into the next line of key resistance levels implying some initial pause."
"In this regard, EUR/JPY faces a critical test at the 140.55/141.25 zone which includes the downtrendline from the Dec ’13 high and the September peak. Importantly, upside breaks would imply an increased risk that the medium term corrective phase is now complete. Similarly, AUD/JPY faces a key test at the 98.67 September high which should define a closer test, if not break of the 100.78/101 zone (76.4% retracement), while NZD/JPY sees critical resistance at the 89/90 zone which represents this year's range highs. Also, the rally for CAD/JPY has extended into the critical 100/101 zone which includes the highs going back to early-2013. Given the increased potential for additional JPY underperformance, corrective retracements are viewed as buying opportunities for the crosses, as well as for USD/JPY."