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4 Feb 2013
Forex Flash: FX positioning data shows a little risk fatigue at Jan end – Societe Generale
Kit Juckes, Global Head of Currency Strategy at Societe Generale notes that FX positioning data from the IMM show a little risk fatigue at the end of January, as dollars were bought, CAD and to a lesser extent AUD sold.
He sees that the speculative community is long the high yielding currencies, AUD, MXN and NZD in particular, and is still building a short Yen position. He writes, “I am struck that the yen short is still not unusually big, while a net Euro long is still small. Finally, I am surprised there is a net long of GBP still. Overall, these figures would all tend to suggest 1) EUR/JPY remains a buy, at least on dips; and 2) GBP is vulnerable this week.”
He sees that the speculative community is long the high yielding currencies, AUD, MXN and NZD in particular, and is still building a short Yen position. He writes, “I am struck that the yen short is still not unusually big, while a net Euro long is still small. Finally, I am surprised there is a net long of GBP still. Overall, these figures would all tend to suggest 1) EUR/JPY remains a buy, at least on dips; and 2) GBP is vulnerable this week.”