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16 Apr 2015
‘Abenomics’ trade seems to be over – BTMU
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Derek Halpenny, European Head of GMR at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, comments that Japan has seen large foreign buying in stocks, along with JPY buying, which is the largest two-week buying of Japanese equities since PM Abe came to power.
Key Quotes
“One final point on the cross-border flow data released today in Japan. The data revealed large foreign investor buying of Japanese stocks totalling JPY 1,042.1bn which followed buying of JPY 1,036.1bn in the week before. That two-week total is the largest since just after the BOJ surprised the market with its second round of QQE policy stimulus back in October. Back then of course that buying was coupled with sharp yen selling – the ‘Abenomics’ trade of buying equities and selling the yen.”
“The equity buying now is very different. It coincides with USD/JPY remaining stable and is the largest two-week buying of Japanese stocks since PM Abe came to power outside of the periods around the two BOJ policy announcements.”
“It is perhaps too early to make any solid conclusions about what is happening here but perhaps the next upturn in confidence about Japan, if it is coming, may not be coupled with investors wanting to hedge their equity exposure to the same extent.”
“Given that USD/JPY is so over-stretched from a valuation perspective, investors may rightly conclude that the risks have changed and hedging yen exposure no longer makes as much sense as it did when QQE policy announcement were made.”
“There is some ‘chatter’ that the BOJ may ease its monetary stance on 30th April. We don’t think this buying is related to that as we believe it would be accompanied with yen weakness. We do not expect the BOJ to ease at the end of the month.”
Key Quotes
“One final point on the cross-border flow data released today in Japan. The data revealed large foreign investor buying of Japanese stocks totalling JPY 1,042.1bn which followed buying of JPY 1,036.1bn in the week before. That two-week total is the largest since just after the BOJ surprised the market with its second round of QQE policy stimulus back in October. Back then of course that buying was coupled with sharp yen selling – the ‘Abenomics’ trade of buying equities and selling the yen.”
“The equity buying now is very different. It coincides with USD/JPY remaining stable and is the largest two-week buying of Japanese stocks since PM Abe came to power outside of the periods around the two BOJ policy announcements.”
“It is perhaps too early to make any solid conclusions about what is happening here but perhaps the next upturn in confidence about Japan, if it is coming, may not be coupled with investors wanting to hedge their equity exposure to the same extent.”
“Given that USD/JPY is so over-stretched from a valuation perspective, investors may rightly conclude that the risks have changed and hedging yen exposure no longer makes as much sense as it did when QQE policy announcement were made.”
“There is some ‘chatter’ that the BOJ may ease its monetary stance on 30th April. We don’t think this buying is related to that as we believe it would be accompanied with yen weakness. We do not expect the BOJ to ease at the end of the month.”