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16 Apr 2015
EUR/USD to trade in wide range in to summer - SG
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Sebastien Galy, analyst at Scoiete Generale, noted conditions surrounding EUR/USD.
Key Quotes:
"With EUR/USD heading for a three-month cycle after a nine-month one, the probability of a large short covering later in the summer or autumn is quite large and significantly underpriced in the forward volatility curve. It presumes a downward sloping term structure and underprices upside risk in EUR/USD."
"More broadly, an environment with a much wider divergence of beliefs should give investors plenty of opportunities to rebalance their portfolios, a result typical of multi-agent/macroscopic models. Such buying and selling at the extreme of the range should mean range trading in a wide band into the summer before a probable severe break out."
Key Quotes:
"With EUR/USD heading for a three-month cycle after a nine-month one, the probability of a large short covering later in the summer or autumn is quite large and significantly underpriced in the forward volatility curve. It presumes a downward sloping term structure and underprices upside risk in EUR/USD."
"More broadly, an environment with a much wider divergence of beliefs should give investors plenty of opportunities to rebalance their portfolios, a result typical of multi-agent/macroscopic models. Such buying and selling at the extreme of the range should mean range trading in a wide band into the summer before a probable severe break out."