交易新闻
24 Apr 2015
Outlook on RUB remains neutral – TDS
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Paul Fage, Senior Emerging Markets Strategist at TD Securities, emphasized the current neutral stance on the Russian assets.
Key Quotes
“The CBR has indicated that, following the ruble rally, they are fairly happy with current levels”.
“Recent ruble strength provides some support to the economy, making imports cheaper and exerting downwards pressure on inflation. This should allow the CBR to keep cutting rates. However, it will take some time for real household incomes to recover form the recent fall”.
“The Russian government seems to be actively pursuing a policy of self-sufficiency reminiscent of the Soviet era. However, we do not think that such a policy can ultimately deliver the material standard of living that Russians aspire to”.
“If oil prices stay around current levels then we expect to see USDRUB to stabilize and volatility to continue to decline. However, we remain wary of the political situation both in East Ukraine and Russia itself. Therefore, when it comes to Russian assets, we prefer to stay side-lined”.
Key Quotes
“The CBR has indicated that, following the ruble rally, they are fairly happy with current levels”.
“Recent ruble strength provides some support to the economy, making imports cheaper and exerting downwards pressure on inflation. This should allow the CBR to keep cutting rates. However, it will take some time for real household incomes to recover form the recent fall”.
“The Russian government seems to be actively pursuing a policy of self-sufficiency reminiscent of the Soviet era. However, we do not think that such a policy can ultimately deliver the material standard of living that Russians aspire to”.
“If oil prices stay around current levels then we expect to see USDRUB to stabilize and volatility to continue to decline. However, we remain wary of the political situation both in East Ukraine and Russia itself. Therefore, when it comes to Russian assets, we prefer to stay side-lined”.