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27 Apr 2015
CFTC: Interesting shifts in positioning – TDS
FXStreet (Barcelona) - FX Strategists at TD Securities share the CFTC Commitments of Traders Report for the week ending Tuesday, April 21st.
Key Quotes
“Overall, there was an implied reduction in net USD long positions which we estimate fell to USD37.7bn (from USD39.0bn). This followed a volatile period post-ECB and BoC meetings, along with mixed results in US data.”
“Of the majors, there was a sizable reduction in net JPY shorts, which were pared back by 8.6k contracts to –14.4k.”
“Net shorts in GBP and AUD were also heavily scaled by 6.7k and 7.8k contracts to –29.2k and –34.7k respectively. The reduction in the latter is consistent with better performance among the commodity complex. Given price action this week, we would expect to see net shorts pared back even further. It was the leveraged funds that was largely responsible for the reduction in the GBP.”
“The same can be said for AUD, but interestingly asset managers increased their net shorts even further, which could be an indication of positioning ahead of the May 5th RBA meeting and investors are split over the prospect of a cut. Note that leveraged funds have been steadily paring back net JPY shorts since the start of this year.”
“Net CAD shorts were also scaled back by 3.5k contracts to – 27k. Most of this reflects a change in positioning amongst leveraged accounts and a relatively upbeat tone from the Bank of Canada last week. We may see a small scale reduction in the following report given CAD outperformance this week.”
“Similarly, net NZD longs improved for a fourth consecutive week, rising by 2.5k to 8.5k contracts.”
“The biggest move in positioning was observed in MXN where net longs of 8.4k contracts reverted back to a net short position of –13.7k.”
“Positioning in the CHF was little changed with a small net long while net EUR shorts increased to –215k (from –212k).”
Key Quotes
“Overall, there was an implied reduction in net USD long positions which we estimate fell to USD37.7bn (from USD39.0bn). This followed a volatile period post-ECB and BoC meetings, along with mixed results in US data.”
“Of the majors, there was a sizable reduction in net JPY shorts, which were pared back by 8.6k contracts to –14.4k.”
“Net shorts in GBP and AUD were also heavily scaled by 6.7k and 7.8k contracts to –29.2k and –34.7k respectively. The reduction in the latter is consistent with better performance among the commodity complex. Given price action this week, we would expect to see net shorts pared back even further. It was the leveraged funds that was largely responsible for the reduction in the GBP.”
“The same can be said for AUD, but interestingly asset managers increased their net shorts even further, which could be an indication of positioning ahead of the May 5th RBA meeting and investors are split over the prospect of a cut. Note that leveraged funds have been steadily paring back net JPY shorts since the start of this year.”
“Net CAD shorts were also scaled back by 3.5k contracts to – 27k. Most of this reflects a change in positioning amongst leveraged accounts and a relatively upbeat tone from the Bank of Canada last week. We may see a small scale reduction in the following report given CAD outperformance this week.”
“Similarly, net NZD longs improved for a fourth consecutive week, rising by 2.5k to 8.5k contracts.”
“The biggest move in positioning was observed in MXN where net longs of 8.4k contracts reverted back to a net short position of –13.7k.”
“Positioning in the CHF was little changed with a small net long while net EUR shorts increased to –215k (from –212k).”