UK on the up? - BTMU

Analysts at Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi explained that we’ve already had the stronger than expected Q3 real GDP print of 0.5% Q/Q and this week we saw one key economic think tank alter their view on the outlook, which is more important.

Key Quotes:

"NIESR announced on Tuesday that it was revising higher its growth projections for this year from 1.7% to 2.0% and next year from 1.0% to 1.4%. Today, the BoE in its Quarterly Inflation Report did the same, revising its 2016 and 2017 projections by 0.2pt and 0.6pt to 2.2% and 1.4% respectively."

"The CBI cut its pre-Brexit forecast for 2017 growth of 2.0% to 1.3% but both the NIESR and CBI revised levels are higher than current market estimates."

"The UK Treasury’s compilation of independent forecasts reveals a 2017 growth forecast of 1.0%, up from 0.5% immediately following Brexit."

"The Bloomberg UK GDP growth consensus is 0.9% for 2017. Market consensus estimates are now likely on the rise and that will gradually help reduce appetite for selling the pound."