Week Ahead for the Dollar Bloc – Deutsche Bank

Economists at Deutsche Bank offer a sneak peek into the key events lined up for release next week that influence the commodity currencies/ dollar bloc.

Key Events:

“Australia: We expect the RBA to leave the cash rate unchanged at its first meeting of the year, due Tuesday, and we see little scope for much change in the policy assessment in the post-meeting statement. On Friday, the Bank will release its latest Statement on Monetary Policy, with updated forecasts for inflation and growth.”

“On the data front, we expect a soft retail trade print for the month of December, reflecting ongoing competitive pressures in food prices and signs of early discounting during the pre and post-Christmas shopping period. We look for a -0.4%mom outturn in the month.”

“New Zealand: The highlight in the week ahead will be the RBNZ's latest OCR review and monetary policy statement, due Thursday. We do not expect any change in the cash rate.”

“On the data front, the RBNZ inflation expectations survey is due Tuesday, the ANZ truckometer on Wednesday and building consents are due Thursday. We also expect to see the REINZ housing market report for January at some point during the week. Finally, the latest GDT dairy auction results will be announced overnight Tuesday.”

“Canada: Friday's employment report is the main event this week. We expect a modest decline (-10k forecast vs. +53.6 previously) in employment but no change in the unemployment rate (6.9%). The trade data are also of interest. While the merchandise trade balance should turn negative again in December, for the quarter as a whole, net exports should contribute massively to Q4 real GDP, which we continue to project at 3.7% annualized.”