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Kit Juckes, Research Analyst at Societe Generale, explains that UK Sterling is still about 12% undervalued against the US dollar and is undervalued on a FEER basis, despite the current account deficit.
Key Quotes
“It is a cheap currency, but with good cause: deeply negative real rates, a big current account deficit and Brexit-related political and economic uncertainty. But how does one weigh up ‘very cheap’ against ‘with good cause’? In the really long run, unless Brexit drives inflation differentials to correct the valuation, sterling is going to struggle to get to and stay at much lower levels against the dollar. The same can’t be said of EUR/GBP, because on either the OECD’s PPP or the PIIEs FEER, the euro’s even cheaper. And the reasons for that cheapness – political uncertainty, sluggish growth and the combination of QE and negative rates – are going to be questioned from Monday onwards unless the French election this weekend throws up a huge surprise (given what opinion polls are telling us).”
“The outlook for sterling will continue to depend on whether the economic impact of Brexit is as dire or even worse than what is generally expected. If we judge by consensus forecasts of where UK growth is headed in the next few years – 1.7% this year, 1.3% next year and 1.6% in 2019 – there’s more room for disappointment than upside surprises. However, given the valuation of sterling against the US dollar, we’re not sure the news can be sufficiently negative to justify being very bearish from here.”
“GBP/USD has probably already hit its low for the next several years. But the euro valuation makes EUR/GBP a different story altogether. We need to get past the French election, and given that a Macron win is largely discounted, we won’t get a huge move immediately, but if economic data remain strong and the ECBN does start talking more loudly about tapering its bond buying and/or discuss when to get rates back into positive territory, that EUR/USD 1.18 FEER level could be a magnet.”
