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The focus today is on the Bank of England and its "Super Thursday" as the Quarterly Inflation Report is also released alongside the MPC minutes, explains the analysis team at BBH.
Key Quotes
“A rate hike is highly unlikely. The focus will be on the vote and whether Haldane votes to hike as he has considered. We suggest that if Haldane sticks with the majority, the quid pro quo may a more hawkish inflation report. This could be expressed in part, for example, by lowering the growth forecast and lifting the inflation forecast. This means that a reaction to a 6-2 vote (rather than 5-3 as was the case previously) may be tempered by the forward guidance and Carney's press conference.”
“Separately, the UK reported the service and composite PMI. The former rose to 53.8 from 53.4, and this fed into a rise in the latter to 54.1 from 53.8. The composite averaged 54.7 in Q2 and 54.6 in Q1. This would suggest the UK economy is seeing little improvement at the start of Q3. Nevertheless, sterling is firm ahead of the BOE meeting. It made a new high for the move, a little above $1.3265. It is an 11-month high. Some unwinding long euro-short sterling positions may have lent sterling support against the greenback.”
