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4 Aug 2017
RBA’s SoMP: Further rise in AUD would lower economic growth, inflation
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) released its quarterly Statement of Monetary Policy (SoMP) on Friday,
Main Headlines:
Further rise in AUD would lower economic growth, inflation
Global economic conditions have improved over the past year
Balanced low inflation against risks of rising household debt
Recent rise in AUD has had modest dampening effect on economic forecasts
Expects underlying inflation to reach around 2% in H2 2017, rise a little thereafter
Utility prices to rise more than first thought over next few years, make large addition to CPI
Economy growing around 3 percent for next two years
Sees unemployment little under 5.5% by end 2019, recent jobs data provides more confidence
Trims GDP forecast for Dec 2017 to 2-3%, Dec 2018 unchanged at 2.75-3.75%, 2019 raised to 3-4%
Underlying inflation forecasts unchanged at 1.5-2.5% end 2017 and 2018, 2-3% by end 2019