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14 Aug 2017
AUD/NZD: headed to 1.0900? - Westpac
Analysts at Westpac offered their outlook for the antipodean cross and rates.
Key Quotes:
"AUD/NZD 1 day: Could test 1.0900 during the next few days, if AU commodities continue to outperform and RBNZ intervention warnings resonate.
AUD/NZD 1-3 month: A retest of the 1.0900 area seen in May is possible if iron ore’s rally since mid-June continues and global risk sentiment remains elevated. (8 Aug)
AU swap yields 1 day: The 3yr should open around 2.01%, the 10yr around 2.78%.
AU swap yields 1-3 month: Our RBA outlook (on hold for some time) is anchoring short-maturity interest rates and should keep 3yr swap rates in a 1.8% to 2.3% range, as long as core inflation remains below 2%. Longer maturity rates will largely follow US rates. (8 Aug)
NZ swap yields 1 day: NZ 2yr swap rates should open down 2bp at 2.13%, the 10yr down 2bp at 3.11%, in response to US interest rates overnight.
NZ swap yields 1-3 month: Our RBNZ outlook (on hold throughout 2018) is anchoring is anchoring short-maturity interest rates and should keep 2yr swap rates in a 2.1% to 2.6% range, as long as inflation remains below 2%. Longer maturity rates will largely follow US rates."