When is the Aussie jobs report and how could it affect AUD/USD?

Australian jobs report (July)

Australia's monthly jobs report is back on the cards for Asian markets today. The report will be released at 0130 GMT. 

The employment change is expected to be positive by 20K and the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 5.6%. "Will this report be as strong as previous?" is the question markets are asking. "While the labour market numbers have been particularly strong over recent months, ongoing solid growth in job ads and elevated business conditions suggest that the strength is likely to continue in the near term," argued analysts at ANZ. Meanwhile, analysts at Westpac suggest that the marlet has seen the low in unemployment and they expect it to hold around 5.6% until it starts to drift higher as we move into 2018. "Robust employment growth is drawing workers back into the labour force (and/or holding more in the labour force), lifting participation and preventing any near term dip in unemployment," explained the analysts, adding, " . . . for July, strong employment should again be associated with higher participation. At 65.1% participation should lift the labour force enough to hold unemployment at 5.6%."

How could the data affect AUD/USD?

Anything either side of what is expected throughout the report is likely to have an effect on the price of the Aussie, but it would be expected to rally on an inline report also while based above 0.7820 support. However, anything significantly disappointing could really bring about some damage to the Aussie crosses especially given how weak the dollar is from overnight supply post-Trump politics news and the FOMC minutes that show how divided the policy makers are over the inflationary outlook in the US economy.  

While supports come as 0.7920, 0.7880, 0.7832, 0.7818, 0.7807 and 0.7760, only above the 0.8065 level the 0.8162/66 May 2015 peak and 50% retracement can be seen, according to analysts at Commerzbank. "Above there lies the 0.8295 January 2015 high. The longer term outlook is positive. The market has broken higher from a large triangle formation that targets eventually 0.8715 (one year + target)," argued the analysts. 

Key notes

FOMC meeting minutes: a robust debate on inflation - Nomura

About the Employment Change

The Employment Change released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is a measure of the change in the number of employed people in Australia. Generally speaking, a rise in this indicator has positive implications for consumer spending which stimulates economic growth. Therefore, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the AUD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).