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The persistent bear-trend in the USD this year showed its claws last week with fresh lows in the Bloomberg dollar index since January-2015, explains Greg Gibbs, Director of Amplifying Global FX Capital.
Key Quotes
“It’s not just about the rebound in the EUR, EM currencies and equities are significantly out-performing. Monetary policy is no longer diverging, the Fed is shifting from rate rises to quantitative tightening, synchronised global growth is supporting EM, EUR is rising on hedge unwinds and its current account surplus, Stephen Jen’s dollar smile theory is coming back into vogue, and political risk in the US has risen to new heights with government shut-down fears spiking. The dollar could bite back if wage pressures show up or US tax reform gains traction. Trump is supposed to shift his attention to promoting tax reform, according to his chief economic advisor Cohn. Looking out to next year, beyond the Chinese Government Congress, China stability fears present a significant risk for EM and commodity currencies.”