Mar 22, 2013
Forex Flash: Muddling through emerges as the central scenario for Cyprus – Merrill Lynch
After difficult negotiations in Cyprus talks of a euro exit have resurfaced, but Merrill Lynch analysts see it as much less likely than a muddling through scenario: “Our central scenario is that of muddling through, with a painful deal being reached by the Troika, Cyprus and the possible participation of Russia”, wrote analyst Laurence Boone, adding that this would include some private sector participation as well as indirect but lasting consequences for other periphery countries, “because the discussions would be likely to increase fragmentation again”. “Under that scenario, we would expect policy makers to focus on options to support credit in the South to overcome the renewed fragmentation impact”, he added.
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