WTI: Bears eye $ 66.00 amid expected output boost and risk-off

• WTI and Brent trade in opposite direction, but remain weighed down by prospects of output boost.
• WTI heavily sold-off into broad-based US dollar strength and risk-off.

The sell-off in WTI (oil futures on NYMEX) gathered steam in the European session, now pushing the rates below the midpoint of the $ 66 handle, as the bears look set to test the four-year tops of $ 65.81.

The barrel of WTI remains under heavy selling pressure, largely on the back of increased expectations that the OPEC and non-OPEC producers would boost their production, in a bid to counter a potential supply shortfall expected due to the Venezuelan economic crisis and prospects of the US sanctions on Iran’s oil exports. 

Adding to the declines in oil, the US dollar picked-up strength across its main competitors, sending the USD index to fresh ten-month tops of 95.00. The greenback’s rally is mainly driven by a massive sell-off seen in EUR/USD amid ongoing Italian political crisis.

Attention now turns towards the weekly US crude inventory data for fresh direction on the prices. In the meantime, the USD dynamics and risk-off sentiment will continue to weigh negatively on oil.

WTI Technical levels

According to Slobodan Drvenica at Windsor Brokers, “Penetration of daily cloud (cloud top lies at $66.32) and close below cracked Fibo support at $66.04 (61.8% of $61.80/$72.89 ascend) would generate strong bearish signals for attack at 100SMA ($65.18) and Fibo 76.4% support at $64.42), which guards daily cloud base ($63.80). Meanwhile, oil price may hold in extended consolidation, as slow stochastic is oversold. Broken rising 55SMA (67.08) so far capped upside attempts, but the initial signal of stronger recovery could be expected on a bullish close today, which could risk corrective upticks towards sideways-moving 30SMA ($69.50), before fresh push lower. Res: 67.08; 67.49; 68.50; 69.00. Sup: 66.32; 66.04; 65.79; 65.18.”