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2 Apr 2013
Forex Flash: Since peaking at JPY97.60, USD momentum has flagged - BBH
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Marc Chandler, Global Head of Currency Strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman notes that since peaking on March 12th near JPY 97.60, USD momentum has flagged.
He feels that many in the market expect the Yen to be sold at the start of the new Japanese fiscal year and as the BOJ is set to announce new QE efforts. However, he remains less sanguine. He writes, “We think the yen's 13.7% decline against since mid-November 2012, when the Japanese election was called, reflects the market discounting a more aggressive monetary (and fiscal) policy under the Abe government. In the last two weeks, the dollar has has twice held support near JPY93.50. A break of this could see a range extension to just above JPY93.00. It requires a convincing break of that to signal a return to the JPY91.00 area. JPY94.50 offers initial resistance on a closing basis.”
He feels that many in the market expect the Yen to be sold at the start of the new Japanese fiscal year and as the BOJ is set to announce new QE efforts. However, he remains less sanguine. He writes, “We think the yen's 13.7% decline against since mid-November 2012, when the Japanese election was called, reflects the market discounting a more aggressive monetary (and fiscal) policy under the Abe government. In the last two weeks, the dollar has has twice held support near JPY93.50. A break of this could see a range extension to just above JPY93.00. It requires a convincing break of that to signal a return to the JPY91.00 area. JPY94.50 offers initial resistance on a closing basis.”