Norges Bank to keep its powder dry this week – ING

Analysts at ING expect Norway's central bank to keep its powder dry this week but still think it is too early to rule out some further tightening in 2020 and also expect the Norwegian krone to outperform in the coming months.

Key quotes:

“The Norwegian central bank is unlikely to rock the boat at its interim meeting this Thursday - after all there won't be a monetary policy report or press conference. Expect policymakers to reiterate that ‘the policy rate will most likely remain at this level in the coming period’ – any deviation from that communication would be interpreted as a rather strong hawkish shift.”

“We still wouldn't completely rule out further tightening this year. Currently, the Norges Bank's rate projection implies there's a possibility of a hike around the second quarter (roughly a 40% chance). We're still loosely pencilling in a rate increase in the middle of this year, although this does rely upon a more pronounced global recovery, and one that isn't coupled with sizable NOK appreciation.”